Who will win Delhi? 5 factors that will play decider
Delhi Election 2025: As Delhi votes on February 5, AAP is aiming for a third term while the BJP is hoping to break its 23-year streak of defeats in the national capital. Who will Delhi vote for? A look at five factors that will play the decider.
'Jhadu' or 'Kamal' – which election symbol will Delhiites vote for when they step out to exercise their franchise on February 5? In this triangular contest, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and the Congress are locked in a fierce battle, with the odds stacked against the grand old party. Now, the key battle is between AAP and the BJP, with both parties offering a buffet of freebies and schemes in their manifestos, promising to implement them if voted to power.
Free electricity, cash transfers to women, free rides, scholarships for students, pensions, and healthcare benefits for the elderly – from students to senior citizens, the promises have every section of society covered, ensuring no one feels left out. AAP and BJP are now on a seesaw, with the saffron camp gaining momentum following the recent Union Budget announcement, which introduced no tax on salaries up to Rs 12 lakh. With this, BJP not only made a significant appeal to middle-class salaried individuals but also outdid Arvind Kejriwal's Rs 10 tax rebate demand, hoping to turn this section against AAP.
While both parties emphasise welfare initiatives like free electricity, cash transfers for women, and healthcare benefits, their approaches differ in scope and scale. What will appeal more to Delhi voters? The decision will only be known on February 8, but here are five factors that are likely to play a decisive role.
FIVE DECIDING FACTORS IN DELHI
Middle Class: Over 67% of its households belong to the middle class, and cannot be ignored electorally. The middle-class voter, which forms a large part of the voters in Delhi, may now tilt towards the BJP with the recent Budget announcement. Adding to this, AAP faces two terms of anti-incumbency and corruption charges against its leaders have dented its image. These could drag down the AAP's poll prospects.
Muslims and Dalits: Muslims consist of 12.68 percent of the population of Delhi whereas Dalits make up 16.92 percent. The Dalit vote in the capital, primarily based in the jhuggis and clusters, has been seen favourably towards the AAP, but may see a split now as Prime Minister Narendra Modi, on Sunday, announced that slums will not be razed. Besides, BJP has also come up with a slew of promises for the Dalits and is holding extensive reach-out programmes in Dalit-majority constituencies.
The 13% Muslim vote, which in the last two elections has consolidated behind the AAP, and is expected to remain loyal to the AAP despite the Congress efforts. Making up 12.9% of the population, their sizeable number in most constituencies is coveted by the political parties. The Muslim community can be a game changer in six of Delhi 70 assembly seats, with Seelampur having around 50% Muslim voters, followed by Matia Mahal (48%), Okhla (43%), Mustafabad (36%), Ballimaran (38%) and Babarpur (35%). AAP swept all these six seats in the 2020 assembly polls.
Freebies: Both AAP and BJP have gone all-in with their promises to attract voters. While AAP has emphasised free electricity, water, and cash transfers, BJP has not only matched the promises but also tried to counter with a more middle-class-friendly budget and the promise of tax exemptions.
Women: Women make up 48% of India’s population, and their electoral influence is becoming increasingly apparent. With over 71.7 lakh women voters in the national capital, women are emerging as a crucial demographic for political parties. In their attempt to woo them, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has pledged to double the monthly cash transfer under the Mukhyamantri Mahila Samman Yojana from ₹1,000 to ₹2,100 if re-elected. Similarly, the BJP has made a comparable commitment of ₹2,500 per month.
The Face: While Arvind Kejriwal is the clear CM candidate and face of AAP, BJP continues to seek votes under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, without yet announcing a CM candidate for Delhi. Kejriwal has repeatedly taunted the BJP over the uncertainty surrounding their CM choice. However, PM Modi, BJP's most prominent figure in every election, is banking on his vision to fast-track Delhi’s development to secure a win for the party.
PHALODI SATTA BAZAR PREDICTION
The Phalodi Satta Bazar's prediction says that the Aam Aadmi Party continues to be the favourite at the moment despite a sharp fall in its tally as compared to 2020 and 2015. According to the latest estimates of the Phalodi Satta Bazar, the AAP is projected to win 38 to 40 seats in the Delhi elections.
BJP remains in strong contention, unlike Congress, to take the pole position in Delhi. According to the latest Phalodi Satta Bazar projections, the BJP is estimated to win 30-32 seats in the elections. The Satta bazar had earlier projected 31-33 seats for the saffron party. The Phalodi Satta Bazar is giving no projection for Congress.
As the clock ticks down to February 5, these five factors could play a critical role in deciding whether Delhi continues to be ruled by AAP or if BJP can finally break its 23-year streak of defeats in the national capital. The results will be announced of February 8.