Not BJP, Congress might hurt AAP the most in these 12 Delhi seats. Here's why

The Congress, which drew a blank in the 2015 and 2020 Assembly elections in Delhi, has dived into the 2025 Vidhan Sabha polls with newfound zeal and zest. The Congress has positioned itself as a challenger to the AAP, not the BJP, which was the sole Opposition in the Delhi Vidhan Sabha for the last two terms. Congress leaders have been taking on AAP convenor Arvind Kejriwal and its other leaders.

Although it's a three-corner contest across most of the 70 seats in Delhi, in certain constituencies, the real battle is between the AAP and the Congress. And this is evident as the Congress, dormant for a decade and fighting for relevance, is strategically focused on some 20–25 seats in Delhi.

Congress leader Rahul Gandhi's messaging through his rallies in Dalit- and Muslim-dominated seats while emphasising the Constitution and reservations, says it all.

Rahul Gandhi also made a point to visit 2020 Delhi riots-affected areas during the campaign. As a result, Congress, consciously trying to win back Dalits and Muslims, once its traditional voters, is giving the AAP a tough fight in around 12 Delhi Assembly constituencies dominated by these communities.

It is an interesting contest between two INDIA bloc allies for the same voter base.

SEATS WHERE CONGRESS IS BANKING ON MUSLIM, DALIT VOTES AGAINST AAP

It is significant that Rahul Gandhi held his first rally for the Delhi Assembly election in Seelampur.

Seelampur is a seat in northeast Delhi with 57% of voters belonging to the Muslim community. It was once a Congress stronghold. However, AAP managed to win it in both 2015 and 2020. In Seelampur, AAP's Chaudhary Zubair Ahmad is up against Congress's Abdul Rehman, the sitting MLA who recently switched to the Grand Old Party.

Rahul's rally, called 'Jai Bhim Jai Samvidhan', was aimed to resonate with Dalits as well.

Similarly, in Muslim-dominated seats and those with a sizeable population from the community, the Congress is emerging as the main contender against the AAP.

These seats include Matia Mahal (with 60% of Muslim voters), Ballimaran (50%), Okhla (52%), and Chandni Chowk (30%).

In Schedule Caste-reserved seats of Seemapuri and Sultanpur Majra too, the Congress is betting big.

Congress MP Priyanka Gandhi on Sunday attacked AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal and equated him to PM Narendra Modi, suggesting both were "thieves" in Seemapuri.

The Congress is also expected to put up a strong fight in Delhi's peripheral seats like Badli, Sultanpur Majra, Babarpur, and Mustafabad, where a significant population of migrant labourers, Muslims, and Dalits live.

In mounting a tough fight in Delhi, especially in these key seats, the Congress has not held back. Even its leader, Rahul Gandhi, has launched a no-holds-barred attack on Arvind Kejriwal. The Congress knows the stakes are high in this battle for survival, having once ruled the capital uninterrupted for 15 years.

UPBEAT CONGRESS TRIES TO RETAKE TRADITIONAL VOTERBASE

Since the AAP's entry into Delhi's electoral field in 2013, the Kejriwal-led party has risen at the expense of the Congress.

In the 2013 Delhi polls, the AAP secured 30% of the vote, causing Congress's vote share to drop to 25%. This decline continued, with the Congress's vote share plummeting to 9.7% in 2015 and further down to 4.3% in 2020.

The Congress’s slump has been directly proportional to the AAP’s rise, with the latter crossing the 50% vote mark in the last two Assembly elections -- 54.3% in 2015 and 53.5% in 2020.

Now, with factors like anti-incumbency and corruption charges working against the AAP, the Congress is sensing an opportunity, particularly in minority- and Dalit-dominated pockets. Numbers indicate that while the Congress has been on the back foot for a decade, it has still managed to retain some support from these communities. And it wants to make good use of the loyal voter base.

That's the reason these seats are seeing a direct AAP-Congress battle.

The Delhi Assembly election is scheduled to be held on Wednesday (February 5), with the counting of votes set to take place on Saturday (February 8).